Election Analysis #4

Before dawn

Election weekend is upon us! Below are some thoughts on the latest polls, İnce and Oğan, the national mood and the Erdoğan palace’s options.

“When slipping the ballot into the envelope, I’ll fold the paper backwards, slip it in back-to-back.” By Cihan Kılıç. Here’s the full story.

The last polls are in

The Konda and Metropoll numbers dropped like bombs on Thursday, evoking shrieks of delight among the opposition. Konda was especially important, since it’s the most reputable company, and put Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu at 49% and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at 44%. Considering that it was conducted on 5-6 May, it suggests a trend that would put Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu over the 50% mark in the first-round victory.

SONAR, ADA, and Optimar, meanwhile, project an Erdoğan plurality or majority.

I’m not the best person to talk about polling quality, but the people around me who do know this stuff put more weight behind polls projecting an opposition win. 600 Vekil is the closest thing we have to FiveThirtyEight, and they have a weighted poll of polls. It basically says the same thing, with KONDA being the only one that has an “A” rating. Overall, it gives Kılıçdaroğlu a 64% chance of victory and, not that it matters much, but it also projects that Erdoğan will fall short of a parliamentary majority.