Political Analysis #1

The CHP's new leadership, Turkey's place in Israel-Palestine, the Constitutional Crisis

Hi folks,

There’ve been a few big political events in Turkey.

I can’t write full posts on these, but figured it might be useful to comment on them in 200-300 words, so I came up with this format.

I might share parts of these with everyone, but most of these are going to be for paid subscribers. Let me know what you think of the format (via “like” button). Also feel free to suggest topics.

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The CHP’s new leadership

The Republican People’s Party (CHP) actually managed to renew its membership through a party congress. This is a significant event. The law regulating the structure of political parties in Turkey gives leaders a free hand in picking the delegates who vote on them. This means that it’s extremely rare for leaders to be voted out.

I think that its new leadership means that the CHP has graduated to a new, and more complicated problem.

The party is going to have two nodes of power: one in İstanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, the other in Özgür Özel. It seemed that Özel was part of an İmamoğlu-led team for change in recent months, but it’s easy to imagine a future in which the two men lead contending blocks in the party. If İmamoğlu wins in İstanbul again, this would be a contest for de-facto leadership and the 2028 candidacy. If he loses İstanbul in 2024, it will be a contest for the chairmanship of the CHP. So the CHP’s new problem is going to be to strike a balance between those two big personalities.

I also see this morning that the CHP announced a shadow cabinet, which is a first for a major political party in Turkey. I was skeptical at first, but looking over the list, I think it might work out. It’s a fairly young group, which is important in Turkey’s geriatric political landscape. Like everyone else, I like Deniz Yavuzyılmaz, who’s shadow energy minister here. I also like how they didn’t do the classic center-right thing and appoint a former ambassador for the Foreign Ministry position. The academic İlhan Uzgel got the job instead. He’s new to politics, and I’m not sure how he’ll do, but his appointment alone indicates a willingness to change. I also like that there’s many women now high up in the CHP. That indicates that the party might get a little more serious about reflecting its demographic in the big cities.

Again, this is still the CHP, so temper whatever enthusiasm that might arise. It’s still going to be a dysfunctional and messy for the foreseeable future.

“By voting for the CHP repeatedly, I have reached a higher state of consciousness… no mortal could have suffered this much… thank you CHP…” artist: Umut Sarıkaya