Political Analysis #7

liberal opening, de facto devolution, opposition nationalists

Hi folks,

The Political Analysis segment is where I comment on the latest in Turkish politics. The first item is usually available for free subscribers, while the following ones are for paid subscribers only.

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A janissary visiting the Little Prince, by Selçuk Erdem.

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A quick word on the election results and Erdoğan’s rapprochement with the West

Going into the 2023 general elections, Erdoğan put together the most far-right coalition in the country’s history. When he won the elections, he put together the most liberal cabinet in recent memory. Economy tsar Mehmet Şimşek was to return the country into the fold of Davos. Foreign minister Hakan Fidan and intelligence chief İbrahim Kalın were to earn Washington’s respect and cooperation.

This was, and continues to be, deeply tense situation. Erdoğan’s base voted for his radical revisionist project, and they got a half-cocked liberal reset in return. Ankara’s nonchalance on Palestine and his high tolerance of inequality and unemployment are a reflection of this. That’s why the Islamist splinter party New Welfare campaigned on those points in the regional elections.

I’ve argued that Erdoğan’s rapprochement with the West is tactical. He has invested heavily into a new geopolitical direction independent of the West, and I don’t think he’s about to reverse that. Still, it’s impressive how far the palace is willing to go for rapprochement, elections be damned. The contradiction has also triggered a bit of a scuffle within AK Party circles, with radicals and liberals going at each other across newspaper columns and talk shows.

The rumor mill in Ankara is now working overtime. On the one hand, people say that Hamas has been invited to carry its headquarters from Qatar to Turkey, and that Erdoğan has cancelled his trip to the White House. On the other hand, people are also saying that Selahattin Demirtaş and Osman Kavala, the regime’s two highest-profile political prisoners, might be released soon. Who’s right?

I’m not sure. It could be both, or neither. Erdoğan is at a crossroads, still thinking about the best way forward. The various political groups around the palace understand this, and are furiously lobbying their cases. My point has been that whichever road he takes, Erdoğan’s destination will remain “Greater Turkey,” an empire in its own right.

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