Seismologist soothsayers; Syria's Economy; Refik Halid returning from exile; Islamist gradualism

Notebook #21

This is a semi-regular post where I reflect on the things I’ve been reading and watching. The first item is free, the rest is for paid subscribers only.

This week, I’ll be writing about:

• The fallout from the earthquake on the Turkish Internet. There’s long been a battle of the seismologists in Turkey, with different TV experts making conflicting predictions, as well as more overt charlatans.

• My ongoing thoughts on the political economy of Turkey-Syria. This is a low-information topic, but I read an early copy of a report that confirmed a lot of the ideas I had on the subject. I increasingly think that business interests in Turkey have a very clear agenda on Syria.

• I’ve been reading a great book on Turkish intellectual history, and the first part is on the great writer Refik Halid’s return from exile in 1938. I think there are a lot of themes that carry over to our moment today, not just in Turkey, but all countries undergoing regime change (I’m looking at you, America).

• A note on Islamist gradualism in the Syrian space, based on a recent tweet.

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Seismologist soothsayers

Turkey is a land of powerful earthquakes and shallow media. That’s an awful combination right after a major earthquake, and this one happened in Istanbul, so the media fallout was especially bad.

Zap through Turkish TV channels on any given day, and you’re likely to encounter at least one of the guys below:

These men are seismologists. They are all household names. When they appear on TV, people often turn up the sound and listen. Fire up X, TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, whatever, and you’re likely to be exposed to these guys. I keep getting links with video clips where they’re standing in front of a map, point to various fault lines, and talk about impending doom in various parts of the country.

I think this is ridiculous. These guys aren’t the only seismologists in Turkey, and I highly doubt that they’re the best. They’re all older men, and with the exception of Naci Görür (top left) they dress like charlatans and clearly enjoy the limelight. I don’t think that they’re up on the latest research. I don’t think they take their field seriously, and doubt that they’re taken seriously in their fields.

But it can always get worse.

Our friend, Cübbeli Ahmet hoca, also went on TV, claiming that he had a dream in which he was levitating above the sea, saw the water rising, prayed, and got it to go back down again. His point was that his relationship to God ameliorated the earthquake. (He is still remembered for saying after the 1999 earthquake that “my lord has hit the nests of fornication”)

Turkey's Most Entertaining Cleric