The Question of Erdoğan's Succession
Who can do what Erdoğan does?
Hi folks,
I’m traveling and haven’t been able to post quite as much as I’d like. I’ve got another couple election-related posts coming up, and will then go back to writing about political culture.
Below is the intro to a piece I wrote for the Foreign Policy Research Foundation (FPRI), where I’m a senior fellow. It’s part of a collection of short essays put together by James Ryan, our Director of Research.
As the title suggests, it’s about Erdoğan’s succession, which is going to be one of the most important topics going forward.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has won a third and final presidential term. He now has a mandate to govern until 2028, when he will be at the end of his constitutionally allotted two terms. Being 69 years old and appearing more lethargic every year, it is increasingly unlikely that he will continue as president beyond that time. This means that the opposition has lost what is likely their last opportunity to defeat Erdoğan at the ballot box.
Erdoğan’s last term will introduce a new problem to Turkish politics: succession. Who, after all, can do what Erdoğan does? Consider for a moment how complicated a question this is. Erdoğan isn’t just the president and the chairman of the AK Party, he is effectively the leader of several parties under the “Cumhur” coalition in parliament. The people surrounding him, including the cabinet, institution heads, as well as business leaders, have been serving him for decades, and owe allegiance to him personally. Tens of millions of his supporters refer to Erdoğan as “reis”’ meaning “leader,” and feel like they have a personal bond to him. Abroad, there are hundreds of millions of people who look at Erdoğan with admiration and respect. All this is a textbook case of what Max Weber would call charismatic authority. It is power bundled up in the bone and sinew of a rapidly aging man. Can it be passed on? And if so, how?
To read the rest, click here.