Political Analysis #4
Local elections in Izmir, the Erkan scandal
Hi folks,
I haven’t written anything on the political lineup in a while, so thought I’d get into that today.
Two topics: first, my thoughts on the regional elections coming up, and specifically on my home province of Izmir. Second, I have some thoughts on the scandal surrounding Central Bank governor Hafize Gaye Erkan.
Local Elections Update: Izmir
The opposition was never going to do well in the regional elections scheduled for March 31. The question was how bad it would be. As we’re getting closer to the day, it looks like it’s going to be very bad.
The opposition parties haven’t been able to build a coalition. The wounds of the 2023 defeat are too fresh. As expected, IYI is a mess, but I think it’s still strong enough to play a spoiler role in the big cities. That would have been enough on its own, but now HDP/DEM Parti also appears set to put forward candidates across the country, including Istanbul. If all these parties enter elections with their own candidates, it means that Erdoğan’s block is almost guaranteed to get pluralities in big cities, meaning that much of the CHP presence will be wiped off the map.
I know it sounds more pessimistic than most people out there, but I don’t understand how it would play out any other way. Perhaps some of these candidates could campaign for a while, then resign and endorse someone, but I don’t think that’s likely. It may well be as awful as it looks for the opposition.
I was thinking about all this as I was visiting family in Izmir over the weekend. The city has long been a CHP stronghold, but keeping that fort has been a thankless task for its denizens. The city is clogged up and dirty, and has been for as long as I can remember. Aziz Kocaoglu was the CHP mayor from 2004 until 2019, then Tunç Soyer took over in the last cycle. People thought that he might clean things up and make the city more livable, but that hasn’t really happened. The CHP is now apparently planing on putting up a new candidate, but haven’t announced anyone yet.
Whoever it ends up being, I think IYI will eat into their margins this season. Ümit Özlale, an economics professor who happens to be a former TEPAV colleague of mine. Özlale was elected as an IYI MP from a really tough Izmir district in 2023. I was frankly surprised that the professor turned out to be such a capable campaigner. I think he’ll tackle this election pretty hard as well, but he won’t really get AK Party votes. He’ll get support from CHP voters.
The CHP isn’t too worried. Here’s their calculus: the opposition won Izmir by roughly 60/40 in 2019. That 60 percent is roughly 40% CHP, 10% IYI, and 10% HDP/DEM. IYI might peel off entirely, but HDP/DEM is staying in the tent (except three down ballot races). That’s 40-50, which still looks good.
I’m not sure it does. The closer the AK Party gets, the more they’re going to lean into it. And they know how to move the needle. Erdoğan has long dreamed of taking Izmir and sweeping those stubborn Kemalists off their feet with ideology-crushing, knee-buckling public services and infrastructure investments. Many have speculated that they’ve been hobbling Izmir’s development just to turbocharge it if and when they get a hold of it. Maybe that’s possible this year.
The man Erdoğan picked to run for mayor of Izmir is Hamza Dağ.
Dağ is an İmam Hatip graduate, Studied law in Izmir, was head of the AK Party’s Izmir youth wing, then became an Izmir MP in 2011, when he was 31. He’s now 43.
Think about that. It used to be that people in the AK Party were coming in with baggage, either in center-right or far-right parties, the bureaucracy or business. Not Dağ. The AK Party has now been around for so long that they have people who started their professional lives within the party and are now rising to positions of significant responsibility. That’s what makes Dağ interesting. He’s among the first generation of thoroughbred AK Party politicians.
I actually ran into Dağ not too long ago, and I have to say, he is one cool cat. He exudes the AK Party’s semi-bureaucratic air of calm confidence. Being an AK Party man in Izmir, he knows how to move around a place where most people are instinctively distrustful of him. He’s good at the retail side of things, shaking hands, hugging grannies, asking questions, nodding along to people, even if they’re very critical. He wears Islamist power lightly. If - and it’s still a big if - he gets Izmir, I can see how he’d become a very important person very quickly.
The AK Party would be determined to show some progress very quickly. They’d want to use Izmir to establish as stark a contrast between themselves and the CHP as possible. It’s the kind of thing they’re still very good at.
On a side note: people keep asking me who I think is going to succeed Erdoğan. He still seems invested in grooming a family member which I don’t think is going to work out. Ultimately, it could end up being someone like Dağ. Not him - it will most likely be someone from the Black Sea - but someone of his generation, with an İmam Hatip degree who came up as a career politician through the party. A thoroughbred.
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