I’m exactly the casual observer you described—I don’t pay attention to Turkish politics because big picture - every few years, there is an election, and RTE always wins - usually by just above 50%. The piece you posted honestly reinforces that view: even RTE still craves the optics of electoral legitimacy, and the current maneuvers look like ways to tip the scales just enough to secure it and this isn’t really about moving to an outright dictatorship.
What’s happening right now with the kurds seems to be that the palace is solving a math problem. They are probably 5% short of a majority and trying to make that up with kurds and also suppressing opposition. AKP -35% with YRP etc included
MHP - 5-10%
Kurds - 5-10%
And if the palace is a few points short still the whole going after CHP and dividing the opposition will take care of that.
So as a tourist of Turkish politics with no emotional stakes- there will an election in the next few years and RTE will win framework is a great mental heuristic!
I think HRY’s point is that Erdoğan is trying to break the electoral system, but that he’s not really above the need for a popular mandate himself, so it’s unlikely to work out the way they’re planning it.
I personally don’t think it makes sense to try and predict the next election, whenever it comes. The most interesting parts of politics no longer happen within the electoral system.
I’m exactly the casual observer you described—I don’t pay attention to Turkish politics because big picture - every few years, there is an election, and RTE always wins - usually by just above 50%. The piece you posted honestly reinforces that view: even RTE still craves the optics of electoral legitimacy, and the current maneuvers look like ways to tip the scales just enough to secure it and this isn’t really about moving to an outright dictatorship.
What’s happening right now with the kurds seems to be that the palace is solving a math problem. They are probably 5% short of a majority and trying to make that up with kurds and also suppressing opposition. AKP -35% with YRP etc included
MHP - 5-10%
Kurds - 5-10%
And if the palace is a few points short still the whole going after CHP and dividing the opposition will take care of that.
So as a tourist of Turkish politics with no emotional stakes- there will an election in the next few years and RTE will win framework is a great mental heuristic!
I think HRY’s point is that Erdoğan is trying to break the electoral system, but that he’s not really above the need for a popular mandate himself, so it’s unlikely to work out the way they’re planning it.
I personally don’t think it makes sense to try and predict the next election, whenever it comes. The most interesting parts of politics no longer happen within the electoral system.